Broadway’s blockbuster numbers indicate that the box office has recovered from the pandemic. But as production costs continue to soar, the investment climate for everything besides star-driven plays remains grim.
Ahead of the Tony Awards nominations announcement tomorrow morning, I studied the 2024-25 season, which wraps in four weeks. It’s on track to achieve record revenue, barring a hurricane or Covid outbreak that sidelines George Clooney, Denzel Washington, Sarah Snook and Kieran Culkin.
The seven days ending April 20 was Broadway’s highest-grossing ($50.9 million) and best-attended (357,319) week in history outside of the December holidays, according to 45 years of Broadway League data. (A few shows offered nine performances, as in prior Easter weeks.) As of this past Sunday, season-to-date grosses were just $7 million below the same point in 2018-19 — the top grossing season in history. And the gap’s narrowing by about $12 million each week, so 2024-25 should come out on top.
Strong notices underscore that there’s a lot worth seeing. The New York Times’ Jesse Green, Elisabeth Vincentelli and Laura Collins-Hughes designated 18 Broadway shows as a “Critic’s Pick,” starting in July with Cole Escolar’s comedy Oh, Mary! and ending with the musical Dead Outlaw on Sunday. That’s the most Critic’s Picks since 2018-19, the last complete season before the pandemic.
Set in CBS’ bustling studio in 1954, Good Night, and Good Luck — produced and co-written by Clooney, who also stars as fearless CBS News broadcaster Edward R. Murrow — has running costs of about $1 million a week, according to production operating papers obtained by Broadway Journal. That’s a lot of money for a play, but quite manageable for one that grossed a record $3.94 million last week. (The show gets timelier by the day. The executive producer of CBS News’ 60 Minutes recently stepped down in the wake of interference, he said, by corporate brass.)
Good Night, and Good Luck, Othello with Washington and Jake Gyllenhaal and Glengarry Glen Ross starring Culkin have all either made their money back or are poised to, according to investors in the shows. They’ll join earlier successes this season that announced recoupment: Oh, Mary!, All In with John Mulaney and other stars and Romeo + Juliet, with Rachel Zegler and Kit Connor.
It’s a different story for Gypsy, starring six-time Tony Award-winner Audra McDonald. Since previews began in November, the acclaimed musical revival averaged about $1.5 million a week in sales — stellar numbers in an earlier era of lower costs. Today, that’s $400,000 above breakeven, per the offering papers. The show needs a box office bounce to recoup its $15.5 million of production costs within the year that McDonald committed to playing Rose, Broadway’s beloved monster stage mom.
The season offered 42 new shows — the most since 2016-17 — several of which are operating in the red. Boop!, about the cartoon character Betty Boop, has fixed weekly expenses of $817,000, according to a production estimate circulated to investors. Last week, the $26 million musical grossed $550,000. (After credit card fees and union contributions, about $500,000 was available for the production.)
Two of the season’s costliest productions were out of reach of most co-producers and investors. Universal Theatrical Group, which produced Death Becomes Her for $31.5 million, offered co-producing slots only to entertainment executives who regularly do business with Universal, including Steven Spielberg and Marc Platt, or are involved with Broadway touring. Netflix and Sonia Friedman Productions, which produced Stranger Things for an undisclosed sum, didn’t accept outside investment.
Assuming a $40 million price tag for Stranger Things (I heard $40 to $44 million but haven’t seen any documents), I calculated that about $435 million was invested in commercial Broadway this season, based on Securities and Exchange Commission filings. That’s up from about $410 million last season. Both figures exclude productions from Broadway’s four nonprofit companies — Roundabout Theatre Co., Lincoln Center Theater, Manhattan Theatre Club and Second Stage Theater.
A couple of caveats about grosses: After closing for renovations in 2018, the Palace Theatre reopened this season, returning more than 1,300 seats to Broadway’s overall capacity. A state tax credit of up to $3 million introduced in 2022 created an incentive for money-losing productions to run longer than they might’ve otherwise. And when producers announce recoupment, it’s not always clear whether they’re including the tax credit. For example, at current sales, The Picture of Dorian Gray, starring Sarah Snook, depends on the credit to get over the line.
For all the sky-high tallies, Broadway’s prognosis is especially unpredictable, with tourism potentially hurt by Trump’s deportations and antagonistic and chaotic foreign policy. Canadian visitors typically account for 3 to 4 percent of Broadway admissions; Caroline Spivack reported in Crain’s New York Business that hotels and tour operators are experiencing cancellations from the North. And a tariff-related recession could throw a wrench in fundraising for shows and box office revenue.
A time-tested Wall Street warning applies more than ever to the business of Broadway: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
